Barry Eisler on J.A. Konrath’s blog suggested this morning
that publishing is a bit like a lottery. I find that to be an absolutely
accurate portrayal of the publishing industry. He suggests that you take a
chance and put in the time to write and self-edit your manuscript. That’s like
buying a ticket. You can increase your odds of winning the publishing lottery
by putting in more time writing and more time editing and submitting more and
more manuscripts, but in the end it’s still a lottery. Then you submit and you
wait for the million to one chance of winning the lottery and landing a deal.
Even self-publishing is a bit like a lottery. Only the chance is tied up more
in if people will see and buy your work.
The purpose of his post was to discuss the fact that less
people would play the Big 5 Publishing industry lottery if they knew 3 key factors
in their playing the lottery, and the Big 5 Publishers are only telling writers
1 of those factors: the payout. The other two factors are the cost and the
odds. You already know the payout. They tell you all the time “Stephen King.
J.K. Rowling.” Face it. If you buy scratch off lottery tickets, you have
checked the back for the odds of winning. Also, you know when you buy a lottery
ticket what the odds are roughly. You want to know the odds. It would be nice
if the Big 5 released how often then brown file manuscripts at the door. You
also need to know the costs up front. Like what percent of your royalty rate
you are losing by going with Big Publishing.
There are pluses and minuses to both types of publishing.
That’s for sure. I think that one side of the coin is weighted a bit more than
the other at this point though.
I will leave out Konrath’s exposition and let you get
that from his blog directly. But I agree a bit with his point too, except he is
a bit more caustic about it than Barry.
You can read a bit about my experience with playing the lottery over at my blog M. D. Reynolds Writes.
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